After months of speculation about Ford calling an early election, the writ has dropped and Ontarians will go to the polls on February 27. This election comes amidst a deep political crisis for the Canadian ruling class. Justin Trudeau resigned, the minority Liberal government has prorogued parliament to hold a leadership contest, while Trump threatens to impose a crippling 25 percent tariff on all Canadian imports. How should we respond to the election and the tariff threat in a way that builds our movements and pushes back against Ford?
Ford’s early election gamble
Despite pressure building for an early federal election, it is Ford who has jumped the gun to send voters to the polls. With the federal Liberals mired in a leadership crisis, Ford and other premiers stepped into the political vacuum to respond to Trump’s threats. Ford, a self-described unwavering supporter of Trump, used this platform to paint himself as standing up for all Canadians. Ford has vowed to play hardball with Trump – threatening to ban US alcohol or curb exports of Canadian energy. Much of this is bluster from the premier as he does not have the power to control energy flows. Regardless, Ford is leveraging the moment to justify the early election. He is trying to define this election as one over who is best suited to deal with Trump and the tariff threat.
This is an obvious cover for Ford, who has been planning on calling an early election since early last year. Even dyed in the wool right wing columnists like Brian Lilley admit Ford’s election call is completely self-serving. Ontario’s Conservative Party assumes the federal Conservatives will win the next federal election, which must happen before October 2025. They know the fallout of that election could harm them if they were to go to the polls at the scheduled election time in June 2026. Poilievere has made no secret that he will enact an agenda of sweeping cuts to public programs. These cuts will be painful and make most people’s lives worse. It will also squeeze transfer payments to the provinces. All of this would make Ford’s re-election much harder. The timing of the election now times up well with delivery of $200 rebate cheques for people who filed taxes, Ford is counting on this buying him goodwill as voters go to the polls. Likewise Ford knows that a number of scandals, especially the RCMP investigation into the greenbelt scandal, could heat-up again. He has jumped at the opportunity to use the tariff crisis to tamp down diverging class interests.
The tariff question is a class question
On the surface the ballot question in the Ontario election looks like it will be about who is best situated to manage the tariff question. A 25 percent tariff on exports to the USA would be devastating for the Ontario economy. Hundreds of thousands of jobs could be lost and the economy would be driven into a recession. If this escalated into a trade war, it is workers – on both sides of the border – who would pay an immediate price.
The question of tariffs gets at something deeper. Ontario’s economy for too long has been geared towards the appetites of the rich, not the needs of the many. Ford has used his position as premier to continue the Liberal and Conservative playbook of squeezing social spending, cutting regulations on businesses, attacking workers’ rights and the poor, and giving out gifts to big business. The Canadian ruling class’ central political project since at least World War Two has been seamless economic integration with the US. A national industrial strategy has long been abandoned. Exporting natural resources and manufactured inputs to the US has been the name of the game. Corporate structures, logistics, and many services have almost been fully integrated along a large fluid board for capital.
Doug Ford is blustering about retaliatory actions while pitching Fortress Am-Can. This offers no real alternative to the present crisis. For workers, a robust suite of public investment in housing, healthcare, education and social programs could mitigate a recession and protect against future threats of trade war. To do this credibly means polarizing along class lines. Taking aim at the ruling class with taxes on big corporations and the rich, to fund an expansion of public services, shows Ford and Trump have more in common with each other than they do with workers on either side of the border. There is no hope in defeating Ford or Trump if we can’t build movements that take aim at the big business interests behind them.
Opposition: complicit Liberals and weak NDP
Most polls showing Ford’ Conservatives well in the lead. An early election call, while cynical, is not necessarily unpopular. A recent Innovative Research poll showed majority of Ontarians support an early election call. The same poll showed that 60 percent of Ontarians want a change in government, while also showing that Ford still retains a commanding lead. This reflects the weakness of the opposition parties creating a compelling alternative.
Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, who have tacked to the right, have not distinguished themselves from Ford in any meaningful sense. She has promised tax cuts, more funding for the police, to find everyone a family doctor (no details about how have been provided), and to cut the carbon tax – but with no alternative vision to address climate change. The NDP’s platform is well to the left of the Conservatives and Liberals. They are promising more investments in education, healthcare, public transportation and strengthening employment standards for workers.
But the NDP faces two major problems. One is that while they have a number of promises, they have been unable to weave together a convincing narrative about who and what they stand for. They have not forcefully come out for higher taxes on the rich or corporations, and to promise a basket of goodies without taking aim at big business to pay for them stretches credibility. They need to polarize on class lines to ignite their base and make a credible argument for change that is different from what is on offer.
Promising a series of policy changes and pointing out Ford’s scandals is not enough while saying we want to turn the page is not going to work. Being agents of moderation and stability while people are looking for change is a road to nowhere. Ford’s scandals have to be showcased through the prism of class politics. His government is not simply corrupt, it is beholden to the interests of big business and the rich. The left can never advance by railing against corruption and scandal in the abstract, to do so only fosters the the idea that nothing will change no matter who is elected. The politics of class struggle, not cynicism, is what required for the left to advance. People need to believe that the NDP will fight and take on big business if they are going to deliver any change.
The second major problem is the ONDP’s handling of Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama. The party kicked Sarah Jama out of caucus (after Ford said they should) in the fall of 2023 for voicing support for Palestine and a ceasefire. Her expulsion rightly angered many in the party’s base and has looked even worse over time. When Jama reapplied for the ONDP nomination in her riding, her application was rejected by Provincial Director Kevin Beaulieu.
The consequences of this can’t be overstated. Attacking a black Muslim woman for her support for Palestine sends a message to Muslim voters and pro-Palestine voters that they are not welcome in the party. A whole layer of party activists, especially younger members, have been alienated by this move.
Bring it on
As a result of Ford’s opportunistic election call, and the weakness of the Opposition, the response of many is to reject the election. But the NDP and labour will get nowhere by calling an election unnecessary, or saying that Ford should get on with the ‘business of governing’ during this crisis. That is simply tantamount to endorsing Ford as premier, saying he is best situated to take on Trump. How can we oppose Ford and also ask him to keep governing? The left and labour can and should say this election call is crass opportunism, but that they welcome the opportunity to put their case to the voters.
The labour movement and the left have to resist the trap of “team Canada”. Ford’s “Canada is not for sale” covers up his record of selling out Ontarians to the highest bidder. Ford’s slogan when he was first elected was “Ontario: Open for business” and he delivered for his big business friends: he slashed legislated paid sick days, paused the minimum wage increase, privatized liquor sales, handed out sweetheart deals to real estate developers, and privatized long-term care, big pharmacy chains, and other private clinics. His promise to invest $1.8 in healthcare to get every Ontarian a family doctor – after withholding billions throughout the pandemic, and closing crucial services like safe consumption sites – is a cynical ploy to distract from his previous failures to end hallway medicine.
Ford is using the flag as a shield, hoping he won’t have to answer for the housing crisis, the underfunding of healthcare, education and other public services. Workers have got a raw deal from Ford, but the opposition’s inability to connect with broader class issues has allowed Ford to skate on his failed policies. The election needs to outline his record and put bold alternatives on offer to connect to the wide layers of people who are sick of the status quo.
In 2022, Ford won a second majority, which seemed to indicate widespread support for his rightwing policies. But with the lowest voter turnout in provincial history, it was more an indication of voter rejection of the lack of choices on offer rather than political apathy. Five months later education workers went on an illegal strike, defeating the government’s anti-union legislation. Ontario was on the verge of a general strike and Ford was deeply unpopular. The education workers’ strike showed workers’ where their true power is. Movements can reshape the political terrain, raise expectations and open up new possibilities for workers.
Ford’s election call is politically self-serving – designed to get re-elected before the threat of Poilievre’s cuts, and using patriotism to erase the memory of his policies and to divide workers across borders. Nonetheless, the way to respond to Ford’s early election is not to oppose the election, it is to say bring it on.
Did you like this article? Help us produce more like it by donating $1, $2, or $5. Donate
