After the resignation of John Tory in February of 2023, Toronto City Council declared a by-election for mayor on June 26. The contest for mayor in Canada’s largest city is underway with 102 candidates on the ballot. After 12 years of rightwingers occupying the mayor’s office, there is a chance to put a left of centre candidate into office.
The race has shaped up to be a contest between top contenders Olivia Chow, Mark Saunders, Ana Bailão, Josh Matlow, Mitzie Hunter, Anthony Furey, Chloe Brown and Brad Bradford. While many of these candidates struggled to distinguish themselves, there is an emerging polarization. Chow, a former city councillor and NDP MP, is trying to position herself on the left; Matlow, Hunter, Brown and to a lesser extent Bailão are running centrist or centre left campaigns; and Bradford, Furey and Saunders are aiming to capture the rightwing vote.
Miller time
Since amalgamation in 1997 the left of centre has only won two mayoral elections. When David Miller was elected in 2003 as the unofficial NDP candidate, he defeated former mayor Barbara Hall and the defacto Conservative candidate John Tory. Miller’s campaign was backed by NDPers, trade unions, Jane Jacobs and other liberal urbanists. He also received some support from rightwing councillors like Raymond Chow and other prominent Liberal and Conservative figures. Miller campaigned on revamping public services after years of rightwing cuts.
Miller’s promise of reinvesting in public services, cleaning up corruption and expanding transit came up short when measured against the reality of what he achieved. While Miller passed some noteworthy taxes and started the process of transit expansion, public services in the city languished. Miller was able to decisively win a second-term but it was clear the coalition that put him in power was strained. By 2007, Miller was supporting mass budget cuts on municipal services, and attacking workers.
In 2006 and 2008, TTC workers went on strike for better wages, injury compensation, and provisions against outsourcing. But Miller denounced both the 2006 wildcat strike and 2008 “legal” strike. It was Miller who helped put the wheels in motion for the removal of TTC workers’ right to strike in 2011 – this removal of the right to strike was finally overturned by the courts this month. In 2009, when CUPE outdoor workers demanded improved paid sick days, Miller played hardball and forced them on strike.
By the end of his second term it was clear Miller was a spent political force. His term in office demoralized his base and laid the groundwork for Rob Ford’s reactionary regime.
Return of the right
Ford rode into office stoking the grievances of voters in the inner suburbs who had felt largely ignored by Miller. Miller’s disastrous handling of the garbage strike gave Ford licence to attack unions and “downtown elites”. Ford promised to “stop the gravy train” by attacking unions, cutting services, cutting taxes and strengthening law and order. Elected in the wake of the Great Recession, Ford moved quickly to cut the vehicle registration tax, and in his second budget, Ford pushed sweeping cuts to services. While some of his proposed cuts were reversed by council, he still pushed through a $30 million budget cut. Ford also was able to privatize the garbage collection in the west end of Toronto – with the help of councillors Ana Bailão and the supposed progressive Josh Matlow. Unions were hammered hard by Ford, and many centrists councillors like Matlow helped apply the pressure for concessions.
Ford was not all powerful though. In 2012, CUPE 4948, representing library workers, went on strike against Ford’s austerity agenda and were able to push back on concessions. The growing resistance from unions, and popular mobilizations against his cuts in the context of the 2011 Occupy movement, sunk his popularity. As a result, he struggled to cobble together a reliable voting bloc on council to advance his agenda, and was vulnerable to an escalating series of personal scandals that marred the latter part of his term and stalled his agenda. In 2014, Rob Ford was diagnosed with cancer and had to withdraw from the election, however his brother Doug Ford took up the Ford Nation mantle.
But there was no left wing candidate to echo the movement and amplify an alternative agenda. Olivia Chow ran a lackluster campaign in 2014 aiming mainly at Ford’s scandals, not his policies. This allowed John Tory to remain vague on his own promises, and to beat both Doug Ford and Olivia Chow. Tory then won the 2018 and 2022 elections handily.
As Mayor, Tory has been a staunch defender of the police, has failed to deliver on his Smart Track promise, and has done nothing to address the housing crisis in the city. His time as mayor ensured stability for the wealthiest in the city, while leaving everyone else behind. The status quo has failed to address the challenges faced by most residents in the city, so it is no surprise voter participation in elections has plummeted, going from 54 percent in 2014 to 29 percent in 2022 (a 50 year low).
There has been no shortage of movement demands – from decent work to social housing, and from accessible public transit to defunding the police – but these have not been adequately represented on council. Now that Tory is gone a number of candidates have claimed to offer a response.
The mushy middle
A rash of centrist candidates jumped in the race when the by-election was called. Most prominent among them are Ana Bailão, Josh Matlow, Mitzie Hunter and Chloe Brown. But none of these will reverse the rightwing legacy.
Bailão, a former longtime councillor and Deputy mayor under Tory, was first elected to council in 2010. At various points in her time on council Bailão has sought to position herself as a progressive, like when she supported a vacancy tax. But Bailão’s record shows she is much more concerned with defending the status quo. She has opposed decreasing the police budget, voted for TTC cuts, consistently opposed rent control and affordable housing efforts and voted to privatize garbage collection. She has voted with Tory 92 percent of the time. So it is no surprise her campaign team is staffed by John Tory insiders: Nick Kouvalis who ran a number of Harper’s campaigns (as well as John Tory’s 2014 bid),Tom Allison a longtime Liberal party apparatchik (who also helped Tory in 2014), Bob Richardson who ran Tory’s 2014 mayoral bid, and Patrick Harris who ran Tory’s 2022 election. Bailão is the candidate who best represents a continuation of Tory’s mayoralty.
Josh Matlow, a dyed in the wool Toronto Liberal, was first elected to council in 2010. He is aiming to position himself as a left-wing progressive candidate. He proposes to reverse the TTC cuts, invest more money into affordable housing and tenant protections, stop the privatization of Ontario Place. While these promises are positive, Matlow’s actual record is chequered. He voted to privatize garbage collection, outsource union jobs, he supported taking away the right to strike from TTC workers, he pushed other municipal workers to take concessions. He also is a staunch Zionist: he has been vocal in his attacks on Queers Against Israeli Apartheid, and recently attacked a local restaurant, Food Benders for their display of a ‘ I heart Gaza” poster in their window (the city’s charge that sign constituted discrimination was dismissed by the court). Matlow’s team consists of John Laschinger, an establishment political campaigner, and Peter Donolo, a former Chretien era strategist.
Mitzie Hunter was a Liberal MPP for Scarborough-Guildwood, first elected in 2013. Hunter is aiming to position herself as an outsider, running to ‘fix the six’. She, like Matlow, will reverse the TTC cuts, invest more in affordable housing and raise property taxes. She also will invest to open more childcare centres. Hunter’s platform is left of centre. But her campaign team is made up of former Wynne Liberals such as Andrew Bevan and Brad Duguid. She is also being advised by Liberal strategist John McKenna.
Chloe Brown, who finished third in the 2022 mayoral election with 6 percent of the vote, is running again. Her campaign is a mash-up of progressive and rightwing policies that are woven together in a post politics narrative of good policy. For instance, Brown supports a landlord registry, but also supports a registry for “bad” tenants – a policy in lock step with the Ontario Landords Association.
The various candidates in the mushy middle – Ana Bailão, Josh Matlow, Mitzie Hunter, Chloe Brown – have struggled to distinguish themselves in a crowded field. Bailão, who recently won the Toronto Star endorsement, has seen her poll numbers rise the last number of weeks – putting her in third place. Matlow is consistently polling around 10 percent. Hunter has seen her numbers rise and fall through the campaign. And Brown has struggled to poll above 5 percent
The right wing
While the Mayor’s race is chock full of candidates in the mushy middle, three candidates have tried to court the rightwing vote. Brad Bradford, a city councillor first elected in 2018, has run a campaign aimed at lowering taxes and bringing in a “tough on crime” agenda. As a councillor Bradford has voted for TTC cuts, against stricter rent control and has been a consistent supporter of increased policing.
Bradford’s campaign has in many ways been usurped by the rise of Anthony Furey, the former Toronto Sun Columnist. Furey, who now writes for the far-right True North website, has positioned himself as a hard right candidate. Furey’s politics are well to the right of Bradford and Saunders, he is anti-immigrant and has toyed with anti-vax sentiment. His candidacy tries to play down his extremism. He is running on brining in a dramatic increase in policing, halting safe injection sites, clearing encampments, pushing deregulation, tax incentives and a reduction in Hydro fees for big business. Furey’s support has surged past Bradford.
Mark Saunders, the former Toronto police chief, is also running a law and order campaign. Saunders, a much more high-profile candidate than Bradford or Furey, has been hammering on “community safety.” But his policies are the opposite: he supports violent encampment clearings, increased repressive policing, removing bike lanes, and limiting property taxes. Saunders is clearly cribbing from Rob Ford’s playbook–and has the support of Doug Ford–aiming to connect and funnell the many grievances of Torontonians into a law and order frame. Saunders’ election team is packed full of Conservative party strategists from the federal and provincial level. Saunders has also won the endorsement of CUPE 5089, a union representing fare inspectors and special constables on the TTC.
Saunders has emerged as the preferred rightwing candidate, even garnering the endorsement of Doug Ford. He has become the top candidate challenging Chow, consistently running in second place in the polls.
Chow redux
Olivia Chow is running for mayor again. Her failed 2014 run, where she finished a distant third with 23 percent of the vote after leading in early polling, was the product of an overly cautious campaign. In 2014, Chow promised little of substance and aimed to run a safe centrist campaign. John Laschinger (who now advises Matlow) was the strategist behind Chow’s last run. During that election Chow played up her fiscal prudence and commitment to balanced budgets, which won her no new voters and turned off her base of support.
Chow, a former councillor and MP, has by far the best name recognition in the race. She is largely seen as the left-wing candidate. She has promised to make greater investments in housing, protect tenants, invest in the TTC and raise taxes on the rich. While Chow’s campaign is still too cautious, it is an improvement than last campaign.
The context of her bid this time is also different. With Ford as premier, Wynne was in office in 2014, Chow’s candidacy this time symbolizes a rejection of Ford. Polling shows that Chow has a significant lead in the campaign, hovering around 30 percent.
Unfortunately, despite her being the clear leftwing candidate, union endorsements have been split. CUPE Ontario, the Elementary Teachers of Toronto, OPSEU/SEFPO, ATU Canada and United Steelworkers are endorsing Chow–which should come as no surprise as most of these unions have a history of supporting the NDP.
But some of the largest union locals in the GTA have endorsed Bailão, including Unite Here Local 75 and the Carpenters Union Local 27. Liuna 183, which backed Doug Ford in the last election is also endorsing Bailão, which is not a big surprise.
What is more of a shock is that both CUPE Local 79 and CUPE Local 416, the two big public sector municipal locals, endorsed her. This after Bailão voted to privatize jobs of CUPE 416 members in 2011. Their endorsement politically makes no sense and is most likely the product of backroom glad handing, as members were never consulted about these endorsements. Bailão’s poll numbers have never made her a serious contender and her politics have never been aligned with interests of unions. The unions that endorsed her lost an opportunity to meaningfully advance issues that matter to their members.
Chow has also faced brutal racism. The drummed up accusations about “Chinese interference” in the last federal election has stoked a new round of anti-Chinese racism. This has wormed its way into the mayoral race, with rightwing commentators accusing Chow of being aligned with Beijing. Chow is certainly not favoured by developers and business elites–including the local 1%–who much rather prefer a more pliant mayor. Likewise, a Chow election would be the worst case scenario for Ford, who would face a “NDP” mayor with stronger mayoral powers thanks to his policies. Ford used the notwithstanding clause to pass legislation to reduce the number of councillors, and then brought in strong mayoral powers that gives the mayor the ability to veto council and push through their agenda.
In the last weeks of the campaign ‘Stopping Chow’ has become the rhetorical focal point for candidates like Saunders and Bailão. Chow’s is being painted as a tax and spend candidate by her opponents and the rightwing media.
The limits of municipal politics
The problem is that power to affect change from the Mayor’s seat is structurally limited. In her campaign platform Hunter aptly notes Torontians can’t expect “the answer to our challenges is a magical bail out from other governments that we all know is never going to happen.”
Municipalities in Ontario have extremely limited powers to tax, have no powers to regulate the conditions of work, have only partial control over development and cannot engage in deficit financing or issue bonds. The federal and provincial governments for years have devolved services to the municipalities without proper funding. The City of Toronto is very dependent on provincial and federal funding for the large infrastructure projects that are needed to address the major problems residents face.
In addition, the lack of party structures at the municipal level actually makes council less accountable and more susceptible to backroom dealing. An informal network of party affiliation operates behind closed doors. And councillors who leverage party networks to get elected end up turning their back on those politics without accountability.
It is undoubtedly bad when the rightwing is in power in council and controls the mayor’s seat. But we should be under no illusion that a centre-left or NDP aligned mayor will be able to bring the changes Torontonians need, especially if we recall Miller’s policies. In the given context Olivia Chow is clearly the best candidate, as she represents a rejection of Ford and Tory’s business agenda. While there are other left-wing candidates, like Gru and Kiri Vadivelu, their candidacies remain at the margins of the contest.
If Chow wins (or a left of centre candidate wins) her mayoralty would be limited, even with enhanced powers. It could even result in backlash of sorts, where expectations are raised for Chow and her inability to deliver any substantive change stokes rightwing resentment.
Our best bet during and after the election is pushing a working class agenda in the Greater Toronto Area through a renewed and fighting union movement with strong social movements demanding change. This can challenge the rightwing, expose the mushy middle, help push Chow – if she wins – while she is in office. The mayor’s race offers a chance to defeat the right, but if we really want to advance the left we need to continue organizing beyond the election in the streets and in our workplaces.
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