After almost a year of exchanging fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli military has expanded its offensive. The hostilities are no longer confined to the border regions, as an intense campaign of aerial bombardments has displaced nearly a million Lebanese civilians.
The bombings in southern and eastern Lebanon are reminiscent of the offensive on Gaza that began nearly a year ago. Israel claims to be targeting military positions, but the strikes level homes and residential buildings while indiscriminately killing civilians. Hospitals have struggled to treat the influx of injuries in recent weeks. These scenes are painfully all too familiar to those who have watched Israel’s genocide in Gaza unfold over the last year.
Like Gaza one year ago, sustained aerial bombardments seem likely to pave the way for a ground invasion. And like Gaza, civilians in Lebanon, working people and the poor, will pay the highest price. Building an anti-war movement to isolate Israel and stop the war is the urgent need of the hour.
Dangerous escalation
The world braces for catastrophe as the conflict threatens to set the region on fire. Over the last year, the Israeli military and Hezbollah have exchanged cross-border fire, with Israel being responsible for the vast majority of cross-border attacks. For the most part, both parties abided by the unwritten rules of engagement, primarily engaging military positions.
Hezbollah maintains it will stop military action against Israel when Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. But, de-escalation is not on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agenda. His far-right government sees an opportunity to change the balance of forces in Lebanon by waging war on a second front even while its stated strategic objectives in Gaza, the release of hostages and the defeat of Hamas, remain failures. His aggressive stance in the north has boosted Netanyahu’s political fortunes. His bombing of Lebanon, even before the assassination, has revived his Likud’s parties polling numbers. If an election were held today, his party would be the biggest in the Knesset.
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks and the massive air offensive on southern and eastern Lebanon have paved the way for war. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General since 1992, preludes a major intensification as thousands of Israeli troops gather on the northern border. A ground invasion seems imminent. Israel, supported by the West, acts with complete impunity, threatening millions in the region with displacement, destruction and death.
The looming threat of regional war
Israel has tried on multiple occasions to ignite the entire region and drag its main sponsor, the United States, into a confrontation with Iran. Over twelve months, Israel has launched air strikes on Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.
When Israel bombed Iran’s embassy in Syria in April 2024, Tel Aviv tried to force a response from Iran. Israel intended to provoke an Iranian response through the assassination of Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 inside Tehran.
The killing of Nasrallah marks a significant turning point. In the past eight weeks, with many of the organization’s top commanders killed, Hezbollah has suffered its most significant losses since its establishment to resist the 1982 Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon.
The United States currently has 40,000 troops stationed in the Middle East. While publicly expressing support for a ceasefire and de-escalation, President Biden and Vice President Harris are continuing to supply Israel with the arms it needs to expand the conflict. Additionally, the United States has been providing political cover for the expansion of the war. Both Biden and Harris have endorsed the killing of Nasrallah, effectively giving Israel the green light for further escalation. The US has also sent additional troops to the region. Israel is aware that in the event of war, the vast majority of Republicans and many Democrats would support military action.
Tehran has maintained distance from the conflict with Israel, with its preference undoubtedly to focus on domestic issues like the economy and the lifting of US sanctions through a nuclear deal. Israel maintains air superiority with its fighter jets, while geographical distance limits Iran’s sustained response.
But, the killing of Nasrallah may compel Iran into a direct confrontation with Israel or risk its credibility. We cannot underestimate the danger.
Iran can retaliate with sophisticated drones and missiles, as it signaled during its telegraphed response to the Israeli bombing of its embassy in Damascus in April. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), at 150,000 strong, is the backbone of Iran’s regional strategy. It is nearly half the size of Iran’s national army. Iran’s regional strategy, hinged on the “axis of resistance,” involves supporting regional armed groups.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has 35,000-75,000 members, while the Houthis (Ansar Allah) have an estimated 200,000 fighters. Iran’s alliance with Syria and Russia has made the Syrian regime a vassal for Tehran.
Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon, has engaged in border skirmishes with Israel since last October. The group claims over 100,000 members and nearly 150,000 missiles and rockets. Despite command-level losses, their communication networks, organizational capacity, and military capabilities remain open questions.
The need of the hour: the emergence of the anti-war movement
The potential for a regional war—a third Gulf war—remains a material reality. The only way to de-escalate and avoid catastrophic suffering for millions across the region is an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon alongside a comprehensive arms embargo.
The emerging anti-war movement in the Canadian state should prioritize breaking Canada’s diplomatic, political, and economic relationship with Israel. Canada must move beyond superficial attempts to limit arms sales and impose a comprehensive two-way arms embargo. It is up to us to continue building a mass movement capable of demanding such an embargo from our government.
Take action by attending tonight’s “Hands Off Lebanon!” rally in Toronto at 6pm. Click here for more details.
For those outside of Toronto, the Palestinian Youth Movement is currently planning actions this Saturday, October 5 to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the genocide unfolding in Gaza. Please check out PYM’s social media to find a rally near you.
Photo courtesy of humbleslave. (CC BY 2.0)
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