It was a big week in British politics. On June 18, Mayor of Manchester and Labour candidate Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election on a high turnout with 55 percent of the vote, compared to 35 percent for Reform and 7 percent for Restore, the UK’s two far right parties. Shortly after the by-election win on June 22, largely seen as a referendum on his leadership, Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister of the UK.
As we have written about previously, Starmer has been a dud PM and squandered the opportunity he was given. Brought to power by the destruction of Jeremy Corbyn and gutting of the left, Starmer’s large but shallow majority was really driven by Tory exhaustion rather than any real convincing popular Labour platform.
Starmer fell flat
Counselled by disgraced Epstein associate Peter Mandelson’s adviser Morgan McSweeny and buoyed by the liberal press, Starmer quickly got to work sucking up to Nigel Farage and emulating Reform UK policies. He attacked child benefits and pensioner’s fuel allowances, echoed far right rhetoric on immigration, made life harder for people being supported by disability payments, and delivered a series of austerity budgets. Starmer also supported the genocide in Gaza, saying that it was okay to cut off food and water to women and children and even allowing RAF surveillance to assist Israeli forces. Starmer also continued his crackdown on the left, purging high profile leaders and parliamentary candidates, altering candidate selection processes, and outright banning factions from the party.
In essence, Starmer made sure that there really wasn’t anything tangible to distinguish the extreme centre parties in parliament. Within a relatively short time, the unpopularity of Starmer’s policies, the stagnating British economy, and his uninspiring public appearances meant that Labour’s polling plunged to 18 percent, as people jumped ship to the Greens and Your Party. This led to a series of u-turns on fuel allowance, child benefits, and digital IDs for migrants, none of which helped. Two years later, dragged down by the weight of his government’s contradictions, Starmer has finally conceded defeat.
Burnham faces challenges
With no challenger stepping forwards, it looks as though Andy Burnham will be taking over the crown. Burnham is already on the charm offensive and will likely be aiming for a Mark Carney style resurrection of the party, projecting a positive vision for the UK’s future. It remains to be seen how successful this will be and it would be wise not to write off the institutional resilience of the Labour party quite yet. Reform UK, the apparent main challenger to Labour, is losing big by-elections, which are key national tests for the party. Given that the Makerfield by-election was a referendum on Starmer, Burnham only stood to gain, but in general Reform’s progress has slowed somewhat. It isn’t necessarily sweeping the country elsewhere and the party is facing pressure from their right, with the Restore party courting parts of Reform’s base. This is in addition to the various scandals damaging Farage’s personal brand, such as his much scrutinised £5m ‘gift’ from crypto billionaire Chris Harbourne. Of course, on the left, a resurrection of Labour would be to the Green Party’s detriment.
In power, Andy Burnham will be faced with all the same contradictions as Starmer. International pressures, such as the tense geopolitical climate and the threat of tariffs, are not going away any time soon. Similarly, domestic questions around immigration, the EU, and Scottish independence remain sticky.
Burnham’s own vision is difficult to pin down and his plans are, as of now, not clear. Burnham has been described by some as a soft left figure, but although Burnham may be more palatable to the trade unions than Starmer and talks a good game on housing, devolution, and privatization, he is not likely to be challenging the markets any time soon or making any big changes to UK foreign policy. Burnham is a former Blairite MP who supported the Iraq war and was helped into the Makerfield seat by Josh Simons of the Labour Together caucus, who first targeted Corbyn and promoted Starmer. Burnham has previously stated that he will stick to the fiscal rules around borrowing and spending (although this is not a certainty), expressed support for asylum detention centres and increased deportations, and already appointed pro-Israel corporate lobbyist James Purnell as his Chief of Staff. Although still unclear, none of this bodes well for the future. While we should get further indications of his plans once cabinet ministers begin to be announced, what is clear right now is that working people in the UK are desperate for positive change. The multitude of problems that working people face will not be easily solved by the centre of the Labour party, and while a left wing project could offer answers, a centrist one will struggle to make a difference to the economy and to peoples’ lives.
Burnham’s existing economic policy record has been dubbed ‘Manchesterism’. But although Manchesterism acts upon some of the problems facing British workers (housing, privatization, diminished social services), it falls short in many ways. Take privatization for instance. Burnham famously improved Manchester’s bus network by bringing transport networks under public control through the regional “Bee Network” and by implementing a flat £2 cap on bus fares. However, these measures crucially didn’t bring the network into public ownership, instead requiring heavy subsidisation of private companies. Given the massive problems struggling UK utilities face, such as its privatized and debt burdened water utilities, this form of business-friendly socialism is not likely to be enough.
One could say the same about building houses. Despite presiding over a surge in construction in central Manchester, Burnham’s administration has lent hundreds of millions in public funds, largely to a single major developer (Renaker). Of the roughly 11,000 homes built through this initiative, only around 503 were classified as affordable. If it does turn out that Burnham’s program is about harnessing the power of the private sector under government control in an attempt to deliver growth and benefit workers, then it is hard to see how Burnham will differ from Starmer much at all.
Regardless of how his vision materializes over the coming months, in the short term Burnham faces a time crunch. With an increasingly restless public demanding real change, the window to make an impact is vanishingly thin and unless ordinary working people start to feel like they are materially better off soon, Labour will struggle to make up lost ground with the public.
Institutional parties in the UK are in a state of collapse, opening the political field to alternatives on both the left and right. If the Labour government under Burnham fails to challenge the wealthy and powerful and reverse the general decline in living standards for working class people, Burnham will face the same fate as Starmer.
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